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CNBC commentator and CEO of digital currency investment firm BKCM LLC, Brian Kelly, believes that, “Bitcoin is about 50 percent undervalued.” However, just because it is undervalued is not a good enough reason for it to move up. Kelly opines that due to extreme negative sentiment, he will not be surprised even if Bitcoin drops to $1,500.
While it is difficult to predict where the current bear market will bottom out, various experts believe that the next bull run will be a strong one. Zhu Fa, the co-founder of Poolin, a Chinese-based crypto mining pool, is extremely ambitious as he expects Bitcoin to reach $738,000 during the next bull phase. However, he also warns that the next bull run might be the last.
Though astronomical price targets look enticing, we are currently looking for fundamental developments to carry crypto prices out of the bear market. Japanese e-commerce firm Rakuten is likely to integrate crypto payments in its mobile app that will be released on March 18. If this happens, it will be a welcome step in bringing crypto closer to mass adoption.
There have been a few recovery attempts in the past few months but they have not sustained. Will the current recovery signal a bottom? Let’s look at the charts to find out.
Unlike previous occasions, the tight range in Bitcoin (BTC) has resolved to the upside. Currently, the price is attempting to break out of the downtrend line, which has been a stiff resistance since the end November 2018. A break out of this resistance will indicate strength and attract buyers.
Traders can wait for a close (UTC time frame) above the downtrend line and buy 30 percent of their desired allocation. The stop loss can be kept just below the lows at $3,200. The next level to watch on the upside is $4,255.
A breakout above $4,255 will complete a double bottom pattern, that has a target objective of $5,273.91. Traders can add the remaining 70 percent position on a breakout and close above $4,255.
Contrary to our expectation, if the bears defend the overhead resistance of $4,255, the BTC/USD pair will remain range bound for a few more days. Our bullish view will be invalidated if the pair turns down and plunges below $3,236.09.
Ethereum (ETH) broke out of the overhead resistance at $134.50 on Feb. 17 and has soared higher. Its next target is $167.32. Traders who have long positions can trail half of their stops closely so as to protect about 75 percent of paper gains. The remaining position can be held with the stop at the breakeven. We do not recommend booking complete profits because we anticipate a move to $167.32 and higher. Hence, we will give some wiggle room for half of the positions.
The 20-day EMA is gradually sloping higher and the RSI has reached the overbought zone. This shows that the bulls are in command. The pair is in the early stage of forming an ascending triangle pattern. Our bullish view will be negated if the ETH/USD pair turns down from the current levels and plunges back below $134.50.
Ripple (XRP) has broken out of the 20-day EMA and the 50-day SMA, which is a positive sign. It can now move up to $0.33108. The price has stayed below $0.33108 since Jan. 10 of this year. Hence, a break out of this level signifies bullishness. Traders can enter long positions on a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $0.33108. The stop loss can be kept at $0.275. The target objective of this trade is $0.40 and higher.
Contrary to our assumption, if the XRP/USD pair turns down from the overhead resistance, it might remain range bound for a few days. The downtrend will resume on a breakdown of critical zone of $0.27795 and $0.24508. The flattening moving averages and the RSI close to 50 point to a consolidation in the near term.
EOS has broken out of the overhead resistance zone of $3.05–$3.2081. Its next target objective is $3.8723 and above it $4.4930. The gradual up-sloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the overbought zone shows that bulls have the upper hand. Traders who are long can protect half of their positions with a tight stop and trail the rest with a stop at $2.50.
We anticipate some resistance at $3.8723 but it is likely to be scaled. The target objective on the EOS/USD pair remains at $4.4930.
Our bullish assumption will be invalidated if the bears reverse direction sharply and push the price back below $3.2081.
After inching higher for the past three days, Litecoin (LTC) finally broke out of the overhead resistance at $47.2460. If the bulls sustain the breakout, the next target is $56.910. The uptrending moving averages and the RSI close to overbought territory shows that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Nonetheless, if the bulls fail to sustain above $47.2460, the traders can book partial profits on their long positions and raise the stop loss on the rest to $40. A break below this level can result in a fall to $35 and lower. The LTC/USD pair will turn bearish if it breaks down from the critical support at $27.701.
After staying close to $121 for the past six days, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has started its journey northwards. It is currently facing some resistance at $141.
However, after breaking out of $141, we expect it to pick up momentum. Therefore, traders can buy on a close (UTC time frame) above $141 and keep the stop loss below the recent lows of $116. The first level to watch on the upside is $163, above which the up move can extend to $175. The BCH/USD pair might consolidate or correct closer to $175. However, the pair has a history of vertical rallies. If the bulls pierce through $175, it will open the door for a rally to $220.
All our bullish expectations will be negated if the pair turns down from $141. The trend will turn negative if the bears sink the virtual currency below $103.
The bulls are attempting to stabilize TRON (TRX) for the past five days but are facing resistance at the 50-day SMA. The moving averages are on the verge of a bearish crossover, which will indicate weakness. A breakdown of $0.02344160 can drag it to $0.02113440 and below it to $0.01830000.
On the other hand, if the TRX/USD pair scales above both the moving averages, it will face selling at the downtrend line and above it at $0.02815521. The pair will pick up momentum if it sustains above $0.02815521. The targets to watch on the upside are $0.0380 and above it $0.040. Traders who are long can keep their stops at $0.0230.
For the past three days, Stellar (XLM) had been attempting to break out of the 20-day EMA. Though unsuccessful, we liked the way it did not give up any ground. A breakout above the 20-day EMA can carry it to the downtrend line and above it to the 50-day SMA. But as the digital currency has not participated in the recent pullback, we will wait for it to form a bullish setup before suggesting a trade in it.
Contrary to our expectation, if the XLM/USD pair fails to scale above the overhead resistances, it will enter into a consolidation. The 20-day EMA has flattened out and RSI is also inching towards the midpoint. This points to a range formation in the short term.
The pair will turn negative if it plummets below the recent low of $0.07256747. Following a breakdown, the next support on the downside is at $0.05795397.
Binance Coin (BNB) has again risen close to the overhead resistance of $10. We anticipate strong selling in the $10–$12 zone. From mid-August to mid-November, it had struggled to break out of this range on two occasions.
Still, if the price sustains above $10, it will signal strength. A consolidation between $10 to $12 will be bullish for the BNB/USD pair because a breakout can push it to $15 and above it to $18.
Conversely, if the pair turns down from the current levels and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it can slide to the 50-day SMA, which is a critical support. We do not find any reliable buy setup with a good risk to reward ratio, hence, we are not suggesting any fresh long positions in it.
Bitcoin SV has broken out of the 20-day EMA. This had been a major roadblock since Jan. 3 and the price had repeatedly turned down from it.
The BSV/USD pair is currently facing resistance at $71.412 and the 50-day SMA. Traders can initiate a long position on a close (UTC time frame) above the 50-day SMA, with a target objective of $102.580.
The failure of the bears to capitalize on the weakness and sink the price below $57 shows demand at lower levels. Our bullish view will be invalidated if the pair turns down from current levels and breaks down of $57. If that happens, a drop to $38.528 is probable.
A very subdued start to Friday. Maybe a few Valentine’s hangovers lurking in the crypto community. The day begins with some question marks after one major exchange appeared to deal as low as $115 in Ethereum (ETH) late on Thursday. It looks like an isolated case although we would imagine someon
e is feeling a little sick this morning. That aside it’s a case of steady as you go. An ETF application hits the headlines and all of a sudden ETH is up to $123.30 and Bitcoin (BTC) to $3,630. However, upon closer examination, the NYSE Arca and Bitwise Asset Management application were already announced back in January. However, due to the US government shutdown, it never hit the SEC registry. That changed Friday. Back down comes ETH and BTC to $120.00 and $3,560 respectively. Essentially old news and the excitement is over with quickly. Fast forward to Sunday afternoon and from nowhere ETH jumps as high as $134.40 and BTC to $3,640. Why? No obvious catalyst other than thin weekend markets ahead of a US holiday, but some fresh positive momentum will be welcomed by the bulls. The rest of the weekend headlines are dominated by reactions to JP Morgan’s new JPM coin. Much of the reaction focused on the supposed hypocrisy of their move. Many questioned whether it was anything beyond their own internal stable coin. And of course, there was much debate around the potential impact on Ripple’s payment platform. Expect these discussions to continue for days.
As ETH led the way over the weekend it is time to look at a medium-term chart. The double top from last week just above $125 was taken out, as was medium-term resistance at $131.54. This now opens up a potential move to $148.90 which was the breakdown level after the failure above $160. Any dip should hold above the double top level from last week. 12 days ago we had touched $100 and even a break back over the resistance at $112.35 seemed like a stretch. Fast forward to today and the technical picture has changed significantly although fundamentally only sentiment towards the approval of an ETF has altered. A 30% rally off the lows is impressive. Is there more to come?
Sunday’s biggest winner and loser
With additional commentary & technical analysis by David Hannigan, Chief Dealer, trade.io.
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by Jim Preissler are solely his opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Forbes, Forbes CryptoMarkets, their parent company or affiliates.
- Dominant cryptocurrencies are gaining ground on Monday.
- BTC/USD attempts to break above $3,700.
- Ethereum beats the market with 11% growth.
The cryptocurrency market is green this Monday morning. All top-20 coins are on the positive territory, gaining from 0.6% to 11% of their respective value in recent 24 hours. The total capitalization of all digital assets in circulation reached $126B during early Asian hours, which is the best value in more than a month.
Bitcoin is changing hands at $3,675 after a short-lived attempt to break above $3,700 handle. The most significant digital asset has gained 2.6% since this time on Sunday amid global cryptocurrency market recovery. The bullish momentum in BTC/USD started gaining traction after the price broke above $3,650 resistance. Now the focus has shifted onto $3,700 barrier that stopped the recovery during the previous bullish episode.
Ethereum is the growth leader today. The coin has gained over 11% and came close to a critical $140.00 before retracing to $138.34. The sell-off fits the definition of a healthy correction from an overbought territory as long as the price stays above $130.00. However, the really critical support lies at $125.00-$124.50. This area contains DMA50, SMA100 1-hour, and 23.6% Fibo retracement weekly.
Ripple’s XRP is trading at $0.3114, close to intraday high. XRP’s recovery is capped by the sloping trend line from November 6 high at $0.5668. Once it is cleared, the upside will gain traction with the next aim at the congestion zone $0.3240 and DMA50 at $0.3350.
Bitcoin Exchange rates
|1 BTC =||4149.95000 USD|
|1 BTC =||3651.76000 EUR|
|1 BTC =||80.0000000 LTC|
|1 BTC =||26.0300000 ETH|
|1 BTC =||3197.29000 GBP|
|1 BTC =||5751.04000 AUD|
|1 BTC =||5394.00000 CAD|